What is ‘What – if‘ analysis? Why is more time spend in problem analysis & problem definition

What is ‘What – if‘ analysis? Why is more time spend in problem analysis & problem definition as compared to the time spends on decision analysis?

What is ‘What – if‘ analysis?

What if analysis is where decisions are made using a model of the problem for developing various solution alternatives and testing them for best choice. 

The model is built with some variables and relationship between variables. In reality, the considered values of variables or relationship in the model may not hold good and therefore solution needs to be tested for an outcome, if the considered values of variables or relationship change. This method of analysis is called ‘what if analysis.’

For example, in decision-making problem about determining inventory control parameters (EOQ, Safety Stock, Maximum Stock, Minimum Stock, Reorder level) lead time is assumed fairly constant and stable for a planning period. Based on this, the inventory parameters are calculated. Inventory manager wants to know how the cost of holding inventory will be affected if lead time is reduced by one week or increased by one week. 

The model with changed lead time would compute the cost of holding inventory under new conditions. Such type of analysis can be done for purchase price change, demand forecast variations and so on. Such analysis helps a manager to take more learned decisions.

Using ‘What if analysis’ managers can test out the outcomes by varying the variables and it creates confidence in decision-making model by painting a picture of outcomes under different conditions.

Problem analysis, problem definition and decision analysis:

Problem Analysis:

If there is a problem, that need to be accessed and analyzed why that is a problem. We can start by collection information to find the causes of the problem and the desired goal.
Problem analysis helps to determine the nature of a problem encountered on your system.

The problem analysis information is used to:

• Determine if you can resolve the problem yourself.
• Gather sufficient information to communicate with a service provider and quickly determine the service action that needs to be taken.
The method of finding and collecting error information depends on the state of the hardware at the time of the failure.

This procedure directs you to one of the following places to find error information:

• Hardware Management Console (HMC) error logs
• The operating system’s error log
• The control panel

Problem definition:

Every problem starts by defining the definition of the problem. As without a proper definition we cannot move ahead with a solution to the problem.

·         The starting point of a problem definition is the information gathered in the problem analysis stage. The different aspects surrounding the design problem have been analysed and should be taken into account in the problem definition.

·         If there is a problem identified, we collect information what that is a problem and what is the desired state. This is the expected state.

Problem analysis and definition is a time consuming process. 

It involves accessing the current state, factors that are the cause of the problem and the desired state we need to reach to solve the problem. This is a data collection process. And that needs to be analyzed and tested out if they solve the problem.

For defining a problem this implies that it is not sufficient to describe the existing state. Therefore, we speak consciously of the situation someone is or is not content with. 

A description of the situation is therefore a description of a state plus the relevant causal model(s), including the assumed patterns of behaviour of the people and organizations involved. A situation is only a problem if the problem-owner wishes to, and want to do something about it. 

This implies that a situation must be conceivable that is more desirable than the present one: the goal situation. The existing situation, however, can also be formulated in such a manner that a problem does arise. A problem definition is usually set up at the end of the problem analysis phase.

Decision Analysis

A decision is made but such decision needs to be analysed for conditions and assumptions considered in the decision model. The process is executed through analytical modelling of problem and solution.
After a problem is analyzed and defined, we have a goal and how to achieve that goal by applying the necessary changes. 

Once this is in place, we need to take a decision. If we have concrete proof that the steps to be implemented will solve the problem then the decision making process is not such a time consuming task as compared to problem analysis and definition.